Stay the Course or Cut and Run?

Last week, the U.S. Senate and House of Representatives passed a bill which committed $100 billion to the Iraq war with the provision that troop withdrawal begins in October 2007 and is completed by March 2008. Mr. Bush has already said that he is going to use his presidential veto for this bill.

This is such a tricky issue that I spent the last few days trying to understand where exactly I stand on it. It is clear that thus far, the American occupation of Iraq has been a hopeless failure. After the much touted WMDs did not materialize, spreading democracy in the theocratic and/or autocratic Middle East became the next goal. Even that has not been achieved. Due to the poor performance of the Coalition Provisional Authority led by L. Paul Bremer III, the Iraqi economy is in a shambles, and the current Iraqi government has been unsuccessful in reviving it. The supply of basic amenities like electricity and water is very erratic. Health care facilities are woefully inadequate. The state of educational institutions is shameful. Of course, the problem that dwarfs everything else is security, or the lack thereof. The senseless and relentless carnage that occurs on almost a daily basis has left the American and Iraqi forces reeling. A civil war has erupted between the Shias and Sunnis and they seem quite intent on destroying each other. Most of the recent bombings have targeted one group or the other. The reason the Americans want to pull out is that their presence there does not seem to be making any significant difference. Moreover, many Iraqis want the occupation to end. Both of these make for a very compelling rationale for the Americans to withdraw from Iraq.

On the other hand, the Americans did create this dangerous situation in Iraq. Do they have some kind of a moral obligation (if nothing else) to leave the country safer than they found it or in other words, clean up the mess they made? More importantly, would the violence escalate even further after they left? Is the current Iraqi administration capable of stemming it and eventually forming a peaceful and united nation without the presence of the American military? Will it be able to stabilize the economy to the extent that the Iraqi citizens can live comfortable lives? I know it is difficult to imagine the situation getting worse than it currently is, but it could. The militias could get even more active and there is a possibility, though slight, that a massacre of the minorities, a la Rwanda, might occur. Millions of Iraqis have already fled the country and another mass exodus would be detrimental to the economy.

I fear that the solution to Iraq is going to be a complex and protracted one. Part of that solution would be to prepare the Iraqi forces well before the Americans leave. Another part would be to carefully analyze the consequences of the absence of the American soldiers as much as their presence. Unfortunately, I don't think I have nearly enough knowledge about Iraq and Iraqis in general to make that call. So, whether the troops should withdraw from Iraq - I still cannot make up my mind. On the other hand, the Bush administration and the US Congress are better equipped in that manner, and I hope that for once, they do whatever is in the best interests of the people of the country they needlessly invaded.